Peyton Should Test Free Agency

This season one of the NFL’s top Quarterbacks Peyton Manning is due to become a free agent unless he reaches an agreement with the Colts before that.  The first thing that must be considered is Manning’s age; he’ll be 35 before the start of next season (pending no lockout).  Because of his age it puts more pressure on the team to be good, Manning isn’t in the position to be able to wait for the Colts to rebuild and the Colts need to be rebuilt.  Last season the Colts had the 20th overall ranked defense (13th in passing, 25th in rushing) and were 29th in the league in rushing.  The Colts were obviously a team that was carried by their passing game which was ranked first in the league thanks to Peyton Manning.  It also took the Colts until Week 17 to clinch their division over Jacksonville and didn’t even make it out of the first round.  This shows that the Colts built right now are not a team that is going to contend for a championship next season.

 

So that brings up the question of if Manning shouldn’t resign with the Colts then where should he go?  First take a look at the teams that need a Quarterback.  The Bills cannot be satisfied with Ryan Fitzpatrick but I wouldn’t expect them to be able to draw Peyton to Buffalo.  The Bengals might need a Quarterback if they give into Carson Palmer’s trade demand but if Palmer has issue with the team there might be big problems.  The Browns need a Quarterback but they are also rebuilding and in a worse situation then the Colts.  Jacksonville and Tennessee are the same type of situation, I couldn’t see Manning leaving for either divisional rival when neither is much better.  The Raiders always seem to be looking for a Quarterback but I don’t see them as a legitimate option.  The Redskins are a mess of an organization but Manning would only go if he was looking exclusively for a payday.  The Panthers will probably stick with Claussen for another year.  The 49ers may need a new Quarterback plus just think of the humor of Manning playing for Jim Harbaugh (if you don’t get it look up the ’97 Colts roster, the year before they drafted Manning).    In total I think there are 6 teams that are just as good a fit or a better fit for Manning then the Colts, those teams are the Dolphins, Cowboys, Bears, Vikings, Cardinals and Seahawks.

 

The Dolphins are a good option for Manning because they give him a good chance to win.  The Dolphins’ biggest weakness last season was the Quarterback position.  Their defense was ranked 6th last season (8th in passing, 7th in rushing).  They were ranked 21st in rushing but it can be speculated that is because teams forced Miami to beat them with the pass.  The Dolphins might still go into next season with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.  The biggest drawback to going to Miami is the tough division.  There is little doubt that the AFC East is already one of the toughest divisions in football with the Jets and Pats but adding Manning to the Dolphins makes it the toughest.  This would most likely cost one of the teams a spot in the playoffs and that still might be the Dolphins.

 

The Cowboys are a very interesting fit for Manning.  They are one of the most talented teams in the NFL.  They have one of the best receiving units in the NFL with Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Roy Williams and Jason Witten.  They are also very talented at Running Back with Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice.  Where they are lacking is Quarterback, many feel Tony Romo is a good Quarterback but he lacks the skills that will get the Cowboys to the next level.  The drawback is the division, like it would be with Miami.  The Giants and Eagles are two tough teams that even with Manning the Cowboys would not be favored in the division.

 

The Bears are one of the most interesting destinations.  This is a team that was a game away from the Super Bowl and will have plenty on controversy with their Quarterback.  Currently the Bears are not strong at Wide Receiver but they have a good running game and a pass first system that Manning would play very well in.  What they could get back from Cutler (most likely draft picks) they could use to fill holes at WR and on the offensive line.  Adding Manning would take away most the turnovers that caused the Bears problems this season.  There aren’t many drawbacks to going to the Bears.  They are already a top team in the NFC and adding Manning would make them the team to beat.

 

The Vikings are another very interesting team.  They have some very good receivers in Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice.  They also have a top running game with Adrian Peterson.  Their biggest struggles came with the inconsistent Quarterback play.  Adding Manning would balance the team out a make them become one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL.  The biggest drawback would be the age of the defense and the inexperienced coaching staff.  At this point the coaching staff needs to grow with a young core so they would be best off going with a young Quarterback but the potential that Manning brings could encourage some quick growth on the coaching staff, plus the Colts went to a Super Bowl with an inexperienced coach.

 

The Cardinals are another interesting spot.  They are only 2 years removed from their Super Bowl appearance.  Most of their core is still with the team and they are strong at Wide Receiver with arguably the best in the NFL Larry Fitzgerald.  The Cardinals’ weakest spot was probably Quarterback after losing Kurt Warner to retirement.  Their biggest drawback is their running game (last in the NFL) which has struggled over the last few years.  Also their defense was ranked 29th (23rd passing, 30th rushing).  They need to improve their running game and defense but a Manning-Fitzgerald combination would be unstoppable.

 

The Seahawks may be looking for a Quarterback because Matt Hasselbeck is getting up in age.  They lack the offensive weapons that teams like the Cowboys and Vikings have but they are a team that won their division (7-9) and a playoff game (home vs Saints) last season.  Manning could own the NFC West if he were to join the team that is already the top team in the division.  Their drawback is that they are not an elite team and it could be argued that the talent on the Seahawks is not any better then the talent on the Colts minus Manning.  The Seahawks are still ranked 27th in defense (27th in passing, 21st in rushing) and they don’t have a go to weapon on offense.  They have an easy schedule every year (2 vs. SF, 2 vs. Arizona, 2 vs. St Louis).

 

Right now the Colts are an average team if Manning were replaced with an average Quarterback.  It might be the best option for Manning to stay with the Colts but he should explore the possibilities of free agency because there are a select few teams that he can help like no other Quarterback can and he can get himself back to the Super Bowl.

 

Hold Out for the Knicks

With the rumors of the Carmelo Anthony deal to the Nets heating up it seems as if he will not finish the season with the Denver Nuggets.  The front runners to acquire Melo are the New York Knicks and the New Jersey (soon to be Brooklyn) Nets.  This is because Carmelo has made it known that he is only interested in playing in New York.  There seems to be a slim likelihood that Melo is traded to the Knicks this season because the Nuggets are not impressed with the Knicks trade pieces (rumors of Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Anthony Randolph, draft picks and expiring contracts).  Now Melo has an advantage in that he is a free agent at the end of the year and no team in their right mind would trade for a superstar (and trade away the type of pieces it takes to get a superstar) if they can’t keep him especially in the NBA.  Melo should use this power to hold out for the Knicks, the biggest reason is simple they’re a better team now, the near future and distant future.

If you were to compare the rosters of the Knicks and Nets (assuming the Melo to NJ trade goes through) without Melo the Knicks are stronger.  There is a legitimate argument that there hasn’t been a more valuable player in the NBA so far this season then Amar’e Stoudemire.  The area that the teams are close is Point Guard but a closer look at the numbers show that the Knicks are better there.  The potential PG the Nets would have, Chauncey Billups is averaging 16.9 PPG with 5 APG in 33.1 minutes per game.  To compare Raymond Felton of the Knicks is averaging 18.3 PPG with 8.7 MPG
in 38.9 minutes per game.  There also needs to be consideration that the Nets would also have Brook Lopez and Rip Hamilton.  Lopez is a good young player but he is still  under achieving, he is averaging 18.2 PPG with only 5.9 RPG in 34.3 minutes.  Rip Hamilton is starting to decline, his points per game is down to 13.5 wichi is 4 points below his career average and he is playing only 26 minutes per game, 7 minutes below his average.

There also needs to be consideration of the near future (2-3 years).  In this case the Knicks are also a better place for Melo.  The Knicks are a team that is still developing, Amar’e is 28 years old and Felton is 26.  Both guys are going to get better, the Knicks supporting cast is also relatively young (considering who they won’t have to trade, examples, Gallinari (22), Chandler (23), Fields (22), Douglas (24)).  Part of the supporting cast of the Nets would be aging (Hamilton(32) and Billups (34)).  Also consider that the Nets would need to trade a minimum of 2 first round
picks to get Melo along  with last year’s first round pick Derrick Favors.  The only top member of the Nets supporting cast would be Brook Lopez.

Finally you look long term (3+ years).  This is harder to look at due to the way NBA rosters change but you would need to considered the continued development of Amar’e and Felton both would be in their “prime” as well as the ability to sign players with the mid level exemption.  In three plus years the Nets cannot rely on the core of Billups/Hamilton.  Both players would be in their late 30s and most likely would not have their contacts renued.  There are rumors of Melo teaming up with Chris Paul.  As great a player he is he is only averaging 16.6 PPG with 9.8 APG in 35 minutes per game, all those numbers are down he averages 19.1, 10 and 37.  There can be questions brought up if he will get his numbers back up after his injury problems last season.  It also needs to be brought up that there is no guarantee that Paul would sign with the Nets just because Melo was on the team ask anyone who speculated on where LeBron, Wade etc would sign last offseason.

Now there also needs to be the consideration that if Melo doesn’t sign an extension this season that the new CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) could change the way “max” players are signed whether it be years or money.  But there is still over a month until the trade deadline which leaves plenty of time for the Knicks to make a trade (I know there are rumors that Denver isn’t impressed with the Knicks assets but they’d take Gallinari and Curry (expiring) over losing Melo to free agency).  Even if Melo doesn’t sign an extension and tests free agency the rules will not change too much that a top player like Carmelo won’t get paid.  It might not be the $17 million that Carmelo will make this year but it will be a significant amount.

Overall it’s not much of a risk for Carmelo Anthony to hold out for a trade to the Knicks and if he isn’t traded to sign there as a free agent.  If he wants to be on a championship team the place for him to go is the Knicks because if he gets traded to the Nets they don’t have what it takes to beat the Magic, Celtics or Heat never mind the Lakers or Mavs.

Update

I plan on writing on a semi regular basis but I was working on a blog on why Andrew Luck should stay in school.  Obviously now finishing and posting that entry would be pointless because a decision has been made.

Brett The Brown

With the end of another NFL season it means another Brett Favre retirement. It seems like this will be it for Brett but based on its history it can be speculated that he will make another comeback. I don’t think that he will but I think it would be fun to think about a few teams that he could comeback with. His days with the Vikings are most likely done so I think the next best fit for him would be the Cleveland Browns.

There are a few reasons why Favre is a fit in Cleveland. Here they are.

1. Current Cleveland Quarterback situation.

Right now the Browns have three Quarterbacks on the roster Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace and Colt McCoy. It looks like Delhomme’s days as a starter are over. He only had a 63.4 Passer Rating with 62.4% completion, 872 yards passing, 2 TDs and 7 interceptions this season in 5 games this season.  Seneca Wallace has been in the NFL for 8 years and never a consistant starter. He had a 88.7 Passer Rating with 694 yards passing, 63.4% completion, 4 TD’s and 2 interceptions after appearing in 5 games (including 1 pass attempt in Week 17) this season. Colt McCoy just finished his rookie season after he was drafted in the 3rd round by the Browns. He had a 74.5 Passer rating with 1,576 yards passing, 60.8% completion, 6 TD’s and 9 interceptions in 8 games.

2. Mike Holmgren

Holmgren and Favre have a history together when Holmgren was the coach of Green Bay. Favre was his Quarterback from 1992-1998 Favre’s second year in the NFL and first with the Packers. They also won Super Bowl XXXI together as well as lost Super Bowl XXXII to the Broncos. It was the most  successful parts of both Favre’s and Holmgren’s careers.

3. Head Coaches

The Browns as of 1/3/11 the Browns have a vacancy at Head Coach. The only contacted coach so far  as been Giants Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell.   A Head Coach like Fewell or another coordinator or position coach wouldn’t have much of a say of what Quarterback Holmgren would sign. There has also been speculation of Mike Holmgren making a comeback into coaching, there is also speculation of a coaches like Jon Gruden or Bill Cowher to return to coaching. Gruden of course already has experience with Holmgren. Holmgren hired Gruden as a Quality Control Coach of the San Francisco 49ers when Holmgren was Offensive Coordinator, then as Wide Receiver Coach when Holmgren was head coach of the Green Bay Packers. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Holmgren hire Gruden again but as Head Coach. Obviously Gruden already has experience with Favre being a position coach with the Packers until becoming Offensive Coordinator of the Eagles in 1995.

Overall I would be shocked to see Favre make another comeback. I think that Cleveland would be better off going with a younger Quarterback to grow with the team.

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